Nigeria’s political landscape has rapidly evolved in the run-up to the 2027 general elections, it is imperative for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to carefully assess both their internal dynamics and external opportunities. The recent sentiments expressed by segments of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc, traditionally loyal to the late President Muhammadu Buhari, reveal an evident discomfort with Tinubu’s leadership. While the absence or lukewarm support of these key northern figures may raise concern, it is necessary for the APC to chart a strategic path that leverages its growing influence rather than hinging the party’s fortunes solely on erstwhile Buhari loyalists.
The fusion of the CPC into the APC resting on the towering influence of Buhari transformed the electoral calculus of Nigerian politics for more than a decade. Buhari’s base, rooted in the North and buoyed by his image as an anti-corruption crusader, was instrumental to APC’s emergence and victories in 2015 and 2019.
However, since Buhari’s passing, rifts have grown more pronounced. Prominent CPC figures view Tinubu’s administration as insufficiently inclusive and believe northern interests have been sidelined. Noteworthy former allies like Nasir El-Rufai and Babachir Lawal have publicly distanced themselves from Tinubu’s camp and are reportedly exploring new alignments, with some gravitating towards the surging African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has become a base for many dissatisfied with the APC’s current trajectory.
This discontent signals a possible shift of a critical northern voting bloc away from the APC, forcing the party to rethink long-held assumptions about electoral geography and loyalty.
Consider the evolving allegiances within the North-West. In previous cycles, the region delivered overwhelming numbers for the APC, thanks largely to Buhari’s direct appeal. Without this glue, several influential figures are exploring new coalitions or openly flirting with opposition blocs. Should these moves coalesce into a formidable coalition, the traditional APC dominance in the North may be diluted, especially if economic grievance and regional considerations further fuel voter discontent.
Despite internal fissures, the APC currently enjoys remarkable structural advantages, many of which have been amplified by the ongoing implosion of the main opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The PDP has in recent months suffered waves of distressing defections:
- Delta State, a notable PDP stronghold, witnessed the defection of both the current governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, and his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa, accompanied by many senior appointees and grassroots mobilizers. This mass movement effectively collapsed the PDP’s organisational structure in the heart of the Niger Delta and allowed the APC to consolidate its presence in a previously elusive region.
- Lagos State experienced the high-profile defection of PDP’s spokesperson and other key personalities, with the entire PDP structure in the state shifting allegiance to the APC. This not only fortifies APC’s traditional base but also debunks the myth of Lagos being politically competitive for the opposition.
- Kebbi State saw the defection of all its PDP senators to the APC, citing persistent leadership crises and lack of ideological direction within the PDP. This trend is symptomatic of deeper woes within the opposition, as more legislators and party officials across multiple tiers realign with the APC.
- The Senate now boasts an APC majority as high as 68 out of 109 seats, underlining the party’s increasing reach nationwide.
The implications are profound. Not only is the APC broadening its footprint in opposition territories, but the ongoing exodus from the PDP underscores the ruling party as the platform of choice for political actors seeking stability and relevance.
Several elements bolster APC’s and Tinubu’s standing ahead of the 2027 elections:
- With 23 out of 36 states, including critical regions like Lagos, Ogun, Kaduna, and Borno, under APC control, the party commands the machinery for grassroots mobilisation and policy implementation.
- The absorption of governors and large party factions from Delta and Lagos has weakened opposition strongholds, reshaping the electoral map in APC’s favour.
- The APC’s established network of governors, local leaders, and grassroots organisers gives it an unparalleled structure for voter engagement across six geopolitical zones.
- Control of state and federal resources facilitates coordinated campaigns, mass mobilisation, and delivery of tangible benefits at the community level, crucial for swaying undecided or pragmatic voters.
- The PDP’s ongoing internal crises, unresolved litigations, and lack of coherent messaging have eroded public confidence. Several opposition figures lament the party’s deviation from its foundational ideals and inability to serve as a viable alternative.
- The emergence of a new coalition under the ADC, while notable, is hampered by organisational frailty and unresolved internal disagreements. Despite the presence of high-profile leaders, the ADC has yet to demonstrate the nationwide machinery or unity required to mount a formidable national campaign.
- Mass defections, especially those involving entire party structures or serving governors, have a domino effect. They not only deprive the opposition of seasoned organisers and voter bases but also send a message of momentum to undecided politicians and fence-sitting voters, further accelerating realignment in favour of the APC.
Should the APC succeed in engineering additional defections in politically strategic states like Rivers and even parts of Kano—where former adversaries could be wooed into the fold—the window for the opposition to recover shrinks further. A domino effect across the South-South, North-West, and parts of the Middle Belt could cement APC’s dominance, making the contest in 2027 a matter of upending the margin rather than overturning the lead.
Despite the multitude of advantages, overreliance on the apparent weakness of the opposition or optimism about defections would be short-sighted. The following risks persist:
- Northern Estrangement: A substantial defection of Buhari’s core loyalists to the ADC or other coalitions, fuelled by regional grievances and perceptions of exclusion, could reduce APC’s dominance in the critical Northern zones.
- Rising Economic Discontent: Economic hardship, inflation, and unemployment remain acute. Unless effectively addressed, these could become rallying points for opposition campaigns and lead to voter apathy or protest votes, even in traditional APC strongholds.
- Opposition Unity: While currently in disarray, a sudden reorganisation or merger among opposition factions (PDP, ADC, Labour Party) could still pose a late-cycle threat, especially if they campaign on a platform of inclusion and economic reform.
For President Tinubu and the APC leadership, success in 2027 will require proactive recalibration:
- Prioritise National Inclusion: Tinubu must invest in healing regional divides, especially with estranged northern stakeholders, ensuring that appointments, projects, and policy attention reflect national rather than sectional priorities.
- Consolidate Gains in Newly Added States: The APC should integrate new members from the opposition effectively, avoiding internal disputes and delivering visible benefits to win genuine grassroots loyalties in these territories.
- Innovate Economic Policy: Tackling inflation, creating jobs, and broadening economic inclusion should become signature themes for the administration, shifting the narrative from complaints to confidence.
- Stay Vigilant of Opposition Resurgence: APC should keep a sustained watch on opposition coalitions, pre-empting possible pacts or mergers with robust, people-centric messaging and agile on-ground campaigns.
- Build a Grassroots Movement: Beyond elite defections, the party must strengthen its voter engagement at the local level, fostering authentic two-way communication and rapid response to grievances.
President Tinubu stands at a junction where the old certainties of northern hegemony and elite cohesion can no longer be taken for granted. The evolving defections from the opposition fortify the APC’s position, but real and perceived exclusion of Buhari’s power base spells both risk and opportunity. By building bridges, deepening grassroots support, and focusing on inclusive governance, Tinubu and the APC can convert today’s advantage into enduring victory in 2027. The path forward requires wisdom, humility, and an unflagging commitment to justice and unity. Only then will the renewed hope agenda resonate across all corners of Nigeria.
